Warning: This analysis contains the results of a predictive model. There are a number of assumptions made which include some speculation. Furthermore, this analysis was not prepared or reviewed by an Epidimiologist. Therefore, the assumptions and methods presented should be scrutinized carefully before arriving at any conclusions.

Estimated Infected Population By Country

with respect to days since outbreak

Tip: Click (Shift+ for multiple) on countries in the legend to filter the visualization.

Latest Country Estimates

Date Estimated Infected Lower Bound Estimates Upper Bound Estimates
Country
Brazil 2020-05-24 557,070 428,515 795,814
China 2020-05-24 84,159 84,095 120,227
France 2020-05-24 184,742 182,709 263,918
Germany 2020-05-24 184,091 180,328 262,987
Iran 2020-05-24 154,886 135,701 221,266
Italy 2020-05-24 234,921 229,858 335,602
Japan 2020-05-24 16,922 16,550 24,174
Portugal 2020-05-24 32,636 30,623 46,622
Singapore 2020-05-24 36,602 31,616 52,289
South Korea 2020-05-24 11,376 11,206 16,251
Spain 2020-05-24 242,329 235,772 346,184
United Kingdom 2020-05-24 284,928 260,916 407,041
United States 2020-05-24 1,841,003 1,643,246 2,630,004

Infected vs. number of confirmed cases

Allows you to compare how countries have been tracking the true number of infected people. The smaller deviation from the dashed line (45 degree line) the better job at tracking the true number of infected people.

Tip: Click (Shift+ for multiple) on countries in the legend to filter the visualization.

Latest Observed vs. Estimate of Infected Cases

Date Observed Cases Estimated Infected
Country
Brazil 2020-05-24 363,211 557,070
China 2020-05-24 84,095 84,159
France 2020-05-24 182,709 184,742
Germany 2020-05-24 180,328 184,091
Iran 2020-05-24 135,701 154,886
Italy 2020-05-24 229,858 234,921
Japan 2020-05-24 16,550 16,922
Portugal 2020-05-24 30,623 32,636
Singapore 2020-05-24 31,616 36,602
South Korea 2020-05-24 11,206 11,376
Spain 2020-05-24 235,772 242,329
United Kingdom 2020-05-24 260,916 284,928
United States 2020-05-24 1,643,246 1,841,003

Methodology

We argue that the number of infected in the past can be inferred using today's number of deaths and average fatality rate from confirmed cases in the following way:

$$I_{t-j} = \frac{D_t}{{CFR}_t}$$

where $I_t$ = number of infected, $D_t$ = number of deaths, and ${CFR}_t $ = case fatality rate = $\frac{D}{C}$. The $j$ depends on the average number of days that covid patients die after having the first symptoms.

Assumption 1: The case fatality rate is a good proxy for the fatality rate of the infected population

Then, in order to estimate the current number of infected $I_t$ we need to estimate its growth rate from $t-j$ to $t$.

$$I_t = (1+\hat{g})^j I_{t-j}$$

Assumption 2: The growth rate of infected $\hat{g}$ is an unbiased estimate of $g$ .

For now we estimate $g$ using the average growth rate since having the first infected person.

Assumption 3: It takes on average 8 days to die after having the first symptoms.